Open Source
Discovering contemporaneous and lagged causal relations in autocorrelated nonlinear time series datasets
arXiv stat.ML0 views
arXiv:2003.03685v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The paper introduces a novel conditional independence (CI) based method for linear and nonlinear, lagged and contemporaneous causal discovery from observational time series in the causally sufficient case. Existing CI-based methods such as the PC algorithm and also common methods from other frameworks suffer from low recall and partially inflated false positives for strong autocorrelation which is an ubiquitous challenge in time series. The novel method, PCMCI$^+$, extends PCMCI [Runge et al., 2019b] to include discovery of contemporaneous links. PCMCI$^+$ improves the reliability of CI tests by optimizing the choice of conditioning sets and even benefits from autocorrelation. The method is order-independent and consistent in the oracle case. A broad range of numerical experiments demonstrates that PCMCI$^+$ has higher adjacency detection power and especially more contemporaneous orientation recall compared to other methods while better controlling false positives. Optimized conditioning sets also lead to much shorter runtimes than the PC algorithm. PCMCI$^+$ can be of considerable use in many real world application scenarios where often time resolutions are too coarse to resolve time delays and strong autocorrelation is present.
Source:https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.03685PreviousMinimax Alternating Regret for the Experts Problem and Online Convex OptimizationNextWho Gets Watched? Allocating Scarce Escalation Resources on Pediatric Wards with Neural Index Policies
Related posts
Distillation didn't help our small model until we took the labels away
0dev.to Machine Learning

462. Minimum Moves to Equal Array Elements II
0dev.to PHP
MUSBRIC: LEGO-Compatible Pneumatic Muscle Bricks for Reconfigurable Musculoskeletal Robots
0arXiv cs.RO
OpenFlyV2: An onboard vision-language-action model for aerial perception and navigation
0arXiv cs.RO
Show HN: Open Bot Avatars – a spec and renderer for interactive bot avatars
0Hacker News New
Show HN: Elections Archive: every election in the US, citable and open source
0Hacker News New