AI & ML
Goal-Oriented Sequential Bayesian Experimental Design for Causal Learning
arXiv stat.ML0 views
arXiv:2507.07359v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We present GO-CBED, a goal-oriented Bayesian framework for sequential causal experimental design. Unlike conventional approaches that select interventions aimed at inferring the full causal model, GO-CBED directly maximizes the expected information gain (EIG) on user-specified causal quantities of interest, enabling more targeted and efficient experimentation. The framework is both non-myopic, optimizing over entire intervention sequences, and goal-oriented, targeting only model aspects relevant to the causal query. To address the intractability of exact EIG computation, we introduce a variational lower bound estimator, optimized jointly through a transformer-based policy network and normalizing flow-based variational posteriors. The resulting policy enables real-time decision-making via an amortized network. We demonstrate that GO-CBED consistently outperforms existing baselines across various causal reasoning and discovery tasks-including synthetic structural causal models and semi-synthetic gene regulatory networks-particularly in settings with limited experimental budgets and complex causal mechanisms. Our results highlight the benefits of aligning experimental design objectives with specific research goals and of forward-looking sequential planning.
Source:https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.07359PreviousWhen the Agent Learns Too: Learning to Incentivize with Unobserved RewardsNextESS-Flow: Training-free guidance as Bayesian inference in source space
Related posts
A Bayesian Optimized Biquad Filter-Burg Model for Real-Time EEG Phase Estimation
0arXiv eess.SP
Thought-deciphering via hierarchical EEG-to-text alignment
0arXiv eess.SP
Neuromorphic Decoding and Dynamical Image Reconstruction from Populations of Spiking Retinal Ganglion Cells
0arXiv eess.SP
Benchmarking Sensor-Fault Robustness in Forecasting
0arXiv eess.SP
Consistent Geometric Deep Learning via Hilbert Bundles and Cellular Sheaves
0arXiv eess.SP
Multi-Threshold Sampling: Signal Space, Sampling Operators, and First Recorded Crossing-Time Distributions
0arXiv eess.SP