November vs December: the Layoff Calendar Drops by More Than Half

The next six weeks of WARN layoff data tell a two-part story. November is heavy. December is quiet — until the final week on the calendar. In total, 31,247 workers are scheduled for layoffs across the six weeks starting November 12, according to Layoff Atlas. November's three weeks hold 22,022 of them, about 71 percent. December's three weeks hold 9,225, about 29 percent.

The six weeks at a glance

Week of November 12: 7,578 workers
Week of November 19: 8,412 workers — the heaviest week on the calendar
Week of November 26: 6,032 workers
Week of December 3: 1,919 workers — the lightest week on the calendar
Week of December 10: 1,959 workers
Week of December 17: 5,347 workers — the newest week on the calendar

November carries the calendar

November's three weeks total 22,022 workers. December's three weeks total 9,225. November runs about 2.4 times December. The gap is even starker week to week: the single heaviest week, November 19 with 8,412 workers, holds more than twice as many workers as the two lightest weeks — December 3 and December 10 — combined. Those two December weeks add up to just 3,878 workers.

The November 19 total has not moved in two weeks. It was 8,412 on October 29, and it is still 8,412 today. Employers file 60 days ahead, so by the time a week is two weeks away, most of its notices are already on the books. The week of November 12, at 7,578 workers, is already underway, and the week of November 26, at 6,032, is the lightest of the three November weeks — but still more than triple the lightest December week.

December's quiet first half

The first two weeks of December are the quietest stretch on the entire six-week calendar. The week of December 3 carries 1,919 workers. The week of December 10 carries 1,959. Neither week reaches 2,000 workers, and together they account for barely 12 percent of the six-week total.

There are a few ways to read that quiet. One is seasonal: employers tend to avoid scheduling layoffs in the first half of December, and the WARN data reflects that. Another is timing: the 60-day notice rule means December 3 layoffs had to be filed by early October. Either way, the numbers say the same thing — the first half of December is the calmest part of the layoff calendar right now.

That calm should not be mistaken for safety. These are reported plans, not confirmed job losses, and a quiet week is still a week in which nearly 2,000 workers have a layoff date. The figures also only cover filed WARN notices; layoffs below the WARN thresholds, and layoffs in states with thin reporting, do not appear here at all.

The December 17 rebound

December does not stay quiet. The week starting December 17 jumps to 5,347 workers — about 2.8 times the December 3 week, and 58 percent of all the workers scheduled across December's three weeks. It is the only December week above 2,000 workers, and it is the newest week on the calendar, which means more filings may still be added to it.

Within that week, a single day stands out. December 20 alone carries 934 workers across three filings: Dreyer's Grand Ice Cream, 803 workers in Howard County, Maryland, on a temporary filing; DSquared Hospitality, 83 workers at a Bellevue, Washington closure; and Republic Amusements, 48 workers in Camp Hill, Pennsylvania. One day accounts for about 17 percent of the whole December 17 week. December's back half is not empty. It is concentrated — a few large filings doing most of the work.

Where the workers are

The national picture behind the calendar is a registry of 654 notices covering 60,606 reported workers over the last 90 days, with 30 notices carrying no worker count. The data was last updated on November 11. Two states dominate it: California reports 20,789 workers and Washington 17,387, together 38,176 workers, or about 63 percent of the national total. Add Maryland (2,667), Virginia (2,556), and Texas (2,419), and the top five states account for 45,818 workers — about 76 percent of everything in the window.

The national total itself is drifting down. A day earlier the registry showed 665 notices and 64,336 workers; today it shows 654 notices and 60,606. That is not a sudden improvement. The 90-day window rolls forward every day, and older notices expire out of it. The registry is a moving window, not a running total, so the headline number falls whenever more notices age out than new ones arrive.

How to read this

A few things to keep in mind when looking at the November-to-December drop. First, the figures describe reported plans, not confirmed job losses — some planned layoffs shrink, some are withdrawn, and some never happen. Second, the calendar only runs six weeks out. December 17 is the last week shown, not the last week that will have layoffs; new filings will extend the calendar further into December and January. Third, the December dip may partly reflect filing timing rather than a real slowdown. Even with those caveats, the shape of the next six weeks is clear: a heavy November, a quiet start to December, and a sharp rebound in the week of December 17.

Data source: Layoff Atlas.