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Uncertainty Quantification for Topological Treatment Effects
arXiv stat.TH0 views
arXiv:2610.41593v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present a unified framework for uncertainty quantification over filtration scale, extending the topological average treatment effect (TATE) analysis of \citet{kim-lee} to conditional mean confidence and individual effect prediction. For the conditional topological average treatment effect (CTATE), we derive multiplier confidence bands at a fixed covariate value, simultaneous over filtration scale, and prove validity in a correctly specified finite-dimensional regression regime, with explicit control of smoothing bias and nuisance-estimation error. For the individual topological treatment effect (ITTE), we integrate existing weighted and functional split-conformal methods to obtain finite-sample marginal prediction coverage under known target-to-calibration likelihood ratios, with a total-variation bound for estimated ratios. We also extend the current TATE silhouette stability analysis to the diagram-independent bound $\|\Phi_r(D)-\Phi_r(D')\|_\infty \le (1+2r)W_1(D,D')$ for $r\geq1$, recovering the known $r=1$ constant, and propagate diagram approximation error to prediction bands. The installable Python library \texttt{tcda\_uq} integrates mean confidence, individual prediction, and topological preprocessing, with tutorials and reproduction materials. Simulations and a PACCE lesion-measurement application illustrate the distinct coverage targets and the importance of declaring the target population.
Source:https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41593PreviousTracy Widom law for sample covariance matrices under quadratic form concentrationNextInstance-dependent sequential limits as an exact information ledger
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