AI & ML
MediPFN: Amortized In-Context Nuisance Learning and Inference for Causal Mediation Analysis
arXiv stat.ML0 views
arXiv:2611.13219v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal mediation analysis decomposes a treatment effect into indirect pathways through mediators and direct pathways through other processes. Tabular foundation models perform classification and regression through in-context learning, providing estimates of conditional means and propensity scores used in causal mediation analysis. Constructing confidence intervals from these estimates requires accounting for uncertainty introduced by fitting and combining several nuisance functions. We introduce MediPFN, an amortized inference framework that adapts a pretrained tabular foundation model to nuisance prediction and combines its predictions through a cross-fitted influence-function estimator. A separate head learns quantiles of the estimator's standardized error from simulated tables with known indirect effects. Supervised fine-tuning, symmetrization, and independent calibration then produce a confidence interval. We establish coverage bounds for the resulting intervals under standard assumptions. Across experiments, MediPFN attains coverage closer to the nominal level than several comparators. It also reduces the computational cost of uncertainty quantification, running 59.1 times faster than bootstrap in matched comparisons.
Source:https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.13219PreviousNear-Optimal Sample Complexity of Deterministic Agnostic PAC LearningNextContinuous Horizon Forecasting
Related posts
Singapore Airlines elevates travel & work with OpenAI technology
0OpenAI Blog
How to Plan a Five-Slide Social Carousel with One Consistent Character
0dev.to

Kimi K2.5 to K3.1 Pro: 8 API Models, One Enterprise Task, and What Actually Got Done
0dev.to
Visa tested 22 shopping agents. 43% failed - and half of those bought anyway. Here's what actually stops it.
0dev.to
Building WUUUH: Skills Drift Faster Than Confidence — Keeping a Hand In During a Career Gap, What Worked, What Broke
0dev.to
FDR-Controlled Variable Selection for Generalized Linear Models and Cox Regression with Virtual Dummies
0arXiv eess.SP